Mali in Meltdown: Stability Forecast


    Stability in Mali is in decline. The withdrawal of MINUSMA has created a serious security risk, leading to both militant and rebel groups in the country to clash with the current junta. December 31 2023 is the expected deadline that MINUSMA will fully withdraw from the country, leaving Mali without any present foreign assistance other than the Wagner PMC. Unlike the French and UN contingent, Wagner does not possess the capacity to conduct security operations on a similar scale. Currently, all three groups have shown interest in seizing the soon to be abandoned UN bases, likely to exacerbate the conflict further. With the current blockade of Timbuktu, fears that a repeat of the 2012 siege on the city will fall to militant hands without the UN and French forces present to thwart further attacks towards the capital.

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    Joseph Balodis
    Joseph Balodis
    Is a recent graduate in MA Intelligence & Security Studies, completing the H4MoD program in 2023 and holding a BA in Contemporary History & Politics at the University of Salford. His interest focus is on Sahelian and West African security, French intelligence, and international relations.

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