Mali in Meltdown: Stability Forecast

Stability in Mali is in decline. The withdrawal of MINUSMA has created a serious security risk, leading to both militant and rebel groups in the country to clash with the current junta. December 31 2023 is the expected deadline that MINUSMA will fully withdraw from the country, leaving Mali without any present foreign assistance other than the Wagner PMC. Unlike the French and UN contingent, Wagner does not possess the capacity to conduct security operations on a similar scale. Currently, all three groups have shown interest in seizing the soon to be abandoned UN bases, likely to exacerbate the conflict further. With the current blockade of Timbuktu, fears that a repeat of the 2012 siege on the city will fall to militant hands without the UN and French forces present to thwart further attacks towards the capital.

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