Migration Through Libya: A 12-Month Forecast

In December 2023, Libyan authorities issued a call for European support to help them address the nearly 700,000 migrants in Libya. The call acknowledges Libya’s limitations in managing immigration challenges independently. As the United Nations Migration Agency, IOM is increasingly called upon to address complex border management. Libya is in the middle of an economic downturn in which residents struggle to access salaries and buy imported goods. Economic hardship particularly affects migrants. Most migrant departures occur in Tobruk, with some activity in Benghazi and Ajdabiya. Tobruk is notably independent due to strong tribal communities. The complexity of immigration management will necessitate sustained support for Libyan authorities. 

Key Judgement-1: Libyan authorities will likely pursue international collaboration and deportation to curb migration in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement-2: It is likely that the Libyan Government of National Accord is using militias to indirectly intimidate migrants.

Key Judgement-3: It is likely that Libyan authorities will seek more support from European institutions to manage migration in the next 6 months.