Moldova VS. Transnistria: A 12-Month Outlook

On February 28, 2024, Transnistria appealed to Russia for protection underscoring a critical juncture in the region’s long-standing conflict. Posing significant implications for Moldova’s strategic outlook and regional stability. Moreover, this move has revitalised concerns over Moscow’s influence in the breakaway region and its potential impact on Moldova’s aspirations for European integration. Furthermore, the situation is a vivid reminder of the geopolitical tensions that continue to simmer in Eastern Europe, with Transnistria remaining a focal point of contention between pro-Russian elements and Moldovan sovereignty aspirations. Therefore, this report will delve into the current dynamics in Transnistria, examining the implications of its request for Russian protection and the broader geopolitical ramifications for Moldova and the surrounding region.

Key Judgement 1. Moldova will likely continue its efforts to join the European Union (EU). Undermining Russian influence in the region in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. Transnistria will likely make efforts to undermine Moldova’s territorial integrity and provoke apprehensions regarding Moldova’s sovereignty in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. Russia will likely attempt to annex Transnistria in the next 12 months.

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