Mozambique is currently torn by multiple crises. Appeared for the first time as a religious sect around 2007, Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jamaah (ASWJ), is also known as Al-Shabaab Mozambique. In 2017, the group launched an insurgency in Cabo Delgado Province and pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) in 2018, thus joining the Islamic State Central Africa Province loose network. Notwithstanding its relatively small size, ISCAP was able to capture Mocimboa da Praia in 2020. Even if the military intervention of Rwanda and the mission of Southern Africa Development Community (SAMIM) has contributed to regaining most of the seized territory, the ISCAP remains active. [source].
Moreover, a combination of economic difficulties, environmental adversities and a corrupted political elite is largely preventing the country’s development. For instance, the detrimental effects of the Freddy cyclone clearly show Maputo’s fragility.
Finally, the underground resources and position on the Indian Ocean are attracting evermore international actors. France, Rwanda, India and China represent the most active ones. Nevertheless, their interventions and investments seem directed toward instrumental gains, particularly in the mining sector, rather than focusing on Mozambique’s empowerment.
Key Judgement 1: Despite significant improvements after the deployment of the SADC mission and Rwandan troops in 2021, political violence will highly likely remain consistent over the next 6 months.
Key Judgement 2: The economic and environmental crisis will almost certainly remain unchanged over the next 6 months. Political elite’s corruption strengthens this trend.
Key Judgement 3: International actors will highly likely pursue their partnership with Mozambique over the next 6 months. Among others, France, Rwanda, China and India are the most important ones.