On 12 January 2024, Myanmar’s ruling military junta and the rebel ‘Three Brotherhood Alliance’ agreed to a ceasefire after Chinese mediation. The Three Brotherhood Alliance is a united front of the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. Following Myanmar’s 2021 military coup, the alliance released a statement condemning the killing of peaceful protesters and calling for the restoration of civilian rule. Since then, they have launched several attacks. On 27 October, some 10,000 alliance fighters launched coordinated, large-scale assaults on the military, police, and government-allied militia locations across Shan state.

Key Judgement 1: The ceasefire is unlikely to end hostilities between the ruling military junta and the Brotherhood Alliance.

Key Judgement 2: Myanmar’s junta is unlikely to be overpowered by the Brotherhood Alliance or other armed factions.

Key Judgement 3: China will likely work with Myanmar’s junta and armed resistance groups to fulfil its regional interests.