Nicaragua Unrest: A 12-month Forecast


    President Daniel Ortega has ruled Nicaragua since 2007. In 2018, security forces violently repressed protests against a social security reform, causing hundreds of deaths, injuries, and imprisonments. This led to concerns about democratic institutions and human rights violations (source). Since then the situation in Nicaragua is worsening, with reports of human rights abuses, such as security forces detaining, torturing, and harassing opposition figures, journalists, and civil society activists. The government has imprisoned or forced opposition leaders into exile and passed laws that restrict freedom of expression and association (source). The international community has appealed to the government to stop violating human rights and restore democratic governance. However, Ortega’s government refuses to comply.

    Key judgement 1. The socio-political situation in Nicaragua is likely to remain unstable for the next 12 months. The Ortega government will likely continue its crackdown on political opposition and dissent.

    Key judgement 2. In the next 12 months, the international community will likely continue to condemn the Ortega government’s actions. The country will also face economic sanctions and isolation.

    Key judgement 3. In the next 12 months, Nicaragua is likely to continue to move closer to Russia and China, given the tensions with the West.

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    Javier Sutil Toledano
    Javier Sutil Toledano
    Javier is a Junior Intelligence Analyst specialising in South America, Central America and the Caribbean. He graduated in Philosophy, Politics and Economics, with a minor in Peace and Conflict Studies. He recently graduated from an International Master's Degree in Security, Intelligence and Strategic Studies.

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