On November 25, 2023, around 150 civilians were kidnapped by armed groups in four villages in the Zamfara State. Moreover, on January 23, 2024, 30+ people were killed in clashes between herder and farmer communities in Northern Nigeria. Furthermore, these cases are only an example of many other similar conflicts that have been going on in the region since late 2023.
Amidst these ongoing security threats, Nigeria faces complex issues stemming from regional conflicts, internal military challenges, and intercommunal tensions. This intelligence report highlights the critical security challenges facing Nigeria. Focusing on the spillover of the Anglophone crisis from Cameroon, corruption and low morale in the Nigerian armed forces, and ethnic and religious tensions in Northern Nigeria.
Key Judgement 1. The spillover of the Anglophone crisis from Cameroon will likely increase cross-border activity exacerbating national security issues in the next 12 months.
Key Judgement 2. Corruption and low morale plague the Nigerian armed forces and security actors. This will likely burden initiatives to improve border and national security in the next 12 months.
Key Judgement 3. Ethnic and religious tensions will likely escalate intercommunal violence and disrupt the local economy in the next 12 months.
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