grey dynamics

Current Al-Shabaab Threat to Ethiopia

January 17, 2020

Eren Ersozoglu

      Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is highly likely Al-Shabaab will continue to be a threat to Ethiopia, however their capabilities are reduced and the AMISOM has been productive in containing threat, they have failed to mount a large-scale attack on Ethiopia.    KJ-2. Tensions with FSG threatens AMISOM, failure to successfully combat Al-Shabaab in Somalia is highly likely to provide operational base for Ethiopia to be targeted.   KJ-3. Political and ethnic violence provides unstable climate, Al-Shabaab…

Tunisia: A Safe Country?

January 17, 2020

Louis Tayler

    Key Judgements   Tunisia is a relatively safe country to visit and conduct business for Westerners in most areas   Tunisia is still at risk of terror attacks, especially in danger zones further from major cities       Tunisia, arguably, is a relatively safe country, in the major population centres and areas away from the borders with Algeria and Libya. A comparison with France, a modern, Western country considered safe by many for visits and business provides…

Effective Algerian Security: Al-Qqeda in the Islamic Maghreb in Decline

January 15, 2020

Louis Tayler

      Key Judgements   KJ-1. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQ-IM) is weak in Algeria, and its leadership is degraded by effective security forces and cross-border cooperation between Tunisia and Algeria.     KJ-2. AQ-IM may be aided by changing security concerns, as the country is in the midst of an election, as well as returning fighters from other conflict zones such as Syria.       Analysis   Despite being in a region with significant security…

Migrants from West Africa Face New Challenges

January 14, 2020

Ana-Maria Baloi

    According to the UN Migration Agency, at least 62 people died when their boat sank off the coast of Mauritania, on fifth of December. The ship was carrying around 150 migrants coming from The Gambia, trying to reach the Canary Islands. The route was popular among migrants trying to get to Europe. However, because of this incident, people are now afraid of following the same path. The other route is through the Saharan desert, which is even more…

Assessing the South Sudan Stability

January 13, 2020

Eren Ersozoglu

    Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is likely that 15th February 2020 deadline will be missed based on evidence and previous deadline being missed. There are aggreviances and tensions on both sides that complicate the possibility of the deadline being met   KJ-2. If unity government formation is reached it does not solve the practical problems of forming a unified military of fighting factions and policing rural conflicts among heavily armed community   KJ-3. US and external pressure highly likely…

Peace & Warlords in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
: What can make them agree?

January 13, 2020

Jesutimilehin Akamo

    This article attempts to diagnose initiatives that can bring belligerent warlords to agreement. The situation in DRC is complex and ethnic-based; the warlords are rational and have a common desire which can be leveraged.     Reconstructed Scenario is based on the following judgments:    There is a realistic probability of lasting peace if the influence and interference of Rwanda are contained.   It is almost certain that the path to peace and end to the cycle of…