grey dynamics

Rio’s Paramilitaries
: The Militias are Government

April 5, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

    In January, newly inaugurated President Jair Bolsonaro was faced with his first scandal after Brazil’s biggest newspaper linked Bolsonaro’s son Flávio to members of a notorious criminal syndicate and militia. President Bolsonaro campaigned and won the presidency on a hardline platform promising to fight rampant crime and violence. His proposals include making weapons more accessible to citizens and providing Brazilian police more latitude to shoot and kill criminals.Last week, the governor of Rio de Janeiro and close ally…

The Violent Chadian Family Feud

April 5, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

    Idriss Déby has been the President of Chad since mounting a coup from Darfur in 1990 with great support from its former colonial power France. After the coup in 1990, his two nephews and twin brothers Tom and Timan Erdimi were some of his most trusted associates. Déby’s rule was initially approaching its end in 2005 as his constitutionally sanctioned two terms were coming to an end with elections to be held in 2006. Then, in June 2005,…

Burkina Faso: Falling into a swamp of blood

April 4, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

    One of the poorest countries in the world, Burkina Faso is battling an escalating wave of attacks over the last three years. This began in the north, near the border with Mali and has spread rapidly to the eastern regions. The five Sahel states of Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger have been dealing with insurgent violence, lawlessness and terror attacks since Libya's political collapse in 2011 and an uprising in northern Mali in 2012. In Burkina…

Angola’s Never-ending War
: The Re-emergence of Rebellion in Cabinda

April 1, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

      On 28 Feb the Cabinda Rebels announced a resumption of its armed struggle and sent a stern warning to the oil and gas industry. The Armed Forces Command (FAC), the armed wing of the Front for the Liberation of the Cabinda Enclave (FLEC), said the resumption was justified given the continuous and growing militarization of the territory by the Angolan armed forces and the ongoing abuse and violence. The declaration comes days after the reported killing of…

Tunisian Counter-Terrorism
: Effective but Conflicted

March 29, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

    Tunisia is considered one of the success stories of the Arab Spring in that democracy was established. However, the regime is heading down a dangerous path in curtailing liberties acquired in the revolution to quell the terrorist threat. A path that potentially drives radicalization itself.       Repressive Measures and Radicalization   In the aftermath of the revolution, the state of emergency lasted until 2014, only to be imposed again after the beach shooting at Sousse in…

North Africa’s Returning Fighters

March 12, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

      The Islamic State’s (IS) territorial demise in Syria is now inevitable. IS fighters have started to flee, leaving them scattered around in Syria and Iraq. Others are set to return to what they once called home. Many of which back to Europe - which has gained much attention. More of which back to North Africa – where IS could remobilise.       Adding to the Ranks   A vast number of foreign fighters in Syria and…