grey dynamics

North Africa’s Returning Fighters

March 12, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

      The Islamic State’s (IS) territorial demise in Syria is now inevitable. IS fighters have started to flee, leaving them scattered around in Syria and Iraq. Others are set to return to what they once called home. Many of which back to Europe - which has gained much attention. More of which back to North Africa – where IS could remobilise.       Adding to the Ranks   A vast number of foreign fighters in Syria and…

Russia’s ‘Non-State State Actor’ Part V
: Not New, But DIfferent

March 4, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

      This series of articles have explored the activity of the Russian private military company (PMC) Wagner in Africa. Links between subsidiary companies, Wagner management, and links to GRU & Ministry of Defence (MOD) has been established. Despite reports of Russian PMC activity in several African states and what that indicates – at this point there is not enough conclusive open-source material available to establish physical Wagner presence in other African states. Instead, this article will further explore…

Russia’s ‘Non-State State Actor’ Part III
: Guns’N Diamonds

February 25, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

    Another war-torn mineral-rich state ripe for Russian arms, investment, and cooperation were the Central African Republic (CAR) in late 2017. In 2016, France formally ended its military mission in the CAR, leaving the responsibility of the security situation on the shoulders of the UN peacekeeping forces who were already overwhelmed prior to the decision. Additionally, in April 2017, the US-led manhunt for warlord Joseph Kony ended, leading the withdrawal of 1,500 US-sponsored Ugandan troops stationed in the CAR.…

Facing an Epidemic in a Civil War
: DRC’s Battle for Survival against Ebola and Rebels

February 24, 2019

Dylan Ramshaw

    The second largest Ebola outbreak in history has now surpassed 500 reported deaths in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This outbreak, first declared in August 2018, now only falls behind the outbreak in western Africa between 2014-2016. The Health Ministry claims a vaccination programme has protected over 76,000 people and prevented "thousands" of deaths. Nevertheless, Doctors Without Borders reported that there has been a surge in cases since January 15. The ability to contain the outbreak…

Terror in Mozambique
: A Jihadist Insurgency or an Overstated Threat?

February 21, 2019

Insider Expert

  Since October 2017, in the Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado, more than 100 people have been killed in over 40 separate attacks. Cabo Delgado borders Tanzania and is rich in gas and minerals and vital for the future of the country’s economy. Attention was first drawn to the province after the Oct 5, 2017 attack on local police units by 40 gunmen. Many of the attacks have followed a similar pattern; hit-and-run raids during which attackers torch houses, steal…

Russia’s ‘Non-State State Actor’ Part II
: The Key to Africa

February 18, 2019

Fredrik Hellem

  By mid-2017, two Russian companies had received contracts in Syria offering security services in return for natural resources. Evro Polis, as mentioned in Part 1, was to receive 25% of natural gas and oil produced from fields in which they recaptured or provided security for. The second company, Stroytransgaz, was given approval to mine phosphate at the Sharqiya phosphate deposit upon recapture of the area. Evro Polis owned by Evgeniy Prigozhin, and Stroytransgaz by Gennady Timchenko, are both under…