grey dynamics

QAnon & Its Origins

November 3, 2020

Michael Ellmer

  What do anonymous online imageboards, rogue high-ranking government officials, pseudo-cryptography, the deep state, satanic sacrifices, The Matrix, the President of the United States and Pixar movies have in common?   To the uninitiated, the abstract nature of those listed topics combined is likely hard to wrap one’s head around. However, the mysterious nature of the list reflects the thrilling puzzle of a conspiracy that connects its items together.   That conspiracy is QAnon.   QAnon is a complex behemoth…

“Jihadi Drug”: Captagon Proliferation

October 28, 2020

Jeremy Walker

  Key Judgements   KJ-1.  The Syrian Civil War has increased the prevalence of Captagon and has almost certainly led to the proliferation of production and Trafficking in neighbouring regions, including North and East Africa.   KJ-2. Historic tribal and family relations control the Trafficking of drugs in Libya. Without this blessing, it is highly unlikely that the Captagon routes would continue.   KJ-3. Given its proximity to Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Peninsula, it is almost certain that there is Captagon…

Grey Dynamics in Mogadishu and the Future of Asymmetric Conflict
: Crowded, Urban, Littoral and Connected

October 23, 2020

Ahmed Hassan

A man walks past the wreckage of a building at the site of a VBIED attack undertaken by the militant group al Shabaab in the Somali capital of Mogadishu on October 15, 2017. AMISOM Photo / Tobin Jones   On October 14, Mogadishu was rocked by twin explosions on the Zoobe junction in the Hodan district and one near Aden Adde International airport, caused by vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED). It was an attack which up until now has not…

The Patriot Movement

October 14, 2020

Michael Ellmer

American History   The concept of a militia is no stranger to the American canon. Traces of civilian-military forces go back as far as the 1600s during the Colonial Period, over a century before the 13 colonies declared independence from British rule on the 4th of July 1776. The United States (US) Declaration of Independence was a pivotal act in the historical drama known as the American Revolution, and with the infancy of a new nation came the drafting of a…

Russia’s ‘Non-State State Actor’ Part IV
: Catering a Warlord

September 26, 2020

Fredrik Hellem

  Libya had amassed a debt of no less than $4.6 billion to Russia by 2008, largely stemming from the Soviet era. President Putin travelled to Libya and met Gaddafi in ’08 and wrote off the entire debt. In return, Russia’s state-owned Russian Railways earned a $3.48 billion contract to build railroads connecting Sirte and Benghazi. Arms deals were signed - in 2010 these deals made up 12% of Russia’s total arms export valued at $10 billion in total. Additionally,…

Organised Crime in Ukraine: A Crippling Problem

April 23, 2020

Louis Tayler

This article aims to shed light on the smuggling problem within Ukraine and describe the why and how of the organised crime issues surrounding it.     A Crippling Problem   Ukraine is a nation suffering from a particular problem, driven in part by economic inequalities and illegal opportunities, but also exacerbated by a country in which Government, from the top down, is thoroughly corrupt, on an organised scale, and one that almost beggars belief. The problem, of course, is…