grey dynamics

JNIM & ISGS in West Africa

March 1, 2021

Eirini Gouta

     Key Judgements   KJ-1. JNIM and ISGS mainly operate in the tri-border area of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The groups comprise the leader militant Islamist groups in the Sahel adding to the sharp increase in violence in West Africa in 2020.   KJ-2. It is almost certain that the groups continue to conduct operations to increase power over the tri-border area. Recent attacks by JNIM and ISGS indicate continued offensive capabilities despite the military pressure from foreign…

Nigeria’s Response to the Cameroonian Crisis

March 1, 2021

Ana-Maria Baloi

    This report seeks to examine the ongoing crisis Cameroon is facing. The document informs the reader about the latest developments in the troubled regions, as well as the governmental and regional responses. For collection and processing, the author used OSINT, therefore the report is safe to be further distributed.   Key Judgements    KJ-1. The Cameroonian government’s initiative to open talks for peace comes as a response to the country’s security forces failed to defeat the separatists. The…

The Rise of Chinese Military Contractors in Africa

February 24, 2021

Eren Ersozoglu

    Key Findings   With over 200,000 Chinese workers, 10,000 Chinese companies, and the rollout of Belt and Road Initiative projects in Africa, security concerns exist.   Enter the Chinese military contractors in Africa. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) integrated Chinese Private Military and Security Companies (C-PMSCs) to protect Chinese state interests abroad.   Private Chinese security groups were actively involved in the 2012 rescue of 29 kidnapped workers in Sudan. The Dewe Security Group were active in…

British Mercenaries and Colombian Cartels

February 23, 2021

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

British mercenaries arrived twice in Colombia in a 3-year period with the objective of targeting FARC headquarters and Pablo Escobar. Aid from the Medellin Cartel, Colombian Armed Forces and the Cali Cartel provided the sponsorship needed to carry out each task.   The rise of guerrillas like the ELN, FARC or M-19 in Colombia in the 1960’s simultaneously drove the rise of paramilitary defence groups and militias. Organised defence militias were a direct response to a demand for increased security…

The Emergence of the Islamic State in DR Congo

February 21, 2021

Insider Expert

    On the 18th of April 2019, Islamic State (IS) claimed its first attack in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In its statement IS mentioned the “Central Africa Province” of the “caliphate”, in reference to a potentially new IS front on the continent. This statement is troubling given the province continues to suffer from an ongoing Ebola epidemic and most of eastern DRC is besieged by rising militia violence. The IS claim also comes as a revelation to many after…

The Connection Between Islamic State & ADF

February 17, 2021

Michael Ellmer

        Key Judgements     KJ-1. There is a realistic probability that the ADF maintains some sort of financial connection to ISCAP, although not enough to classify them as a sub-branch of the latter.     KJ-2. It is highly likely the ADF and ISCAP share similar doctrinal beliefs in accordance with the Salafist school of Islamic thought. Furthermore, there is a realistic probability that the ADF does not use Salafism as the primary motivation for their…