grey dynamics

The Connection Between Islamic State & ADF

February 17, 2021

Michael Ellmer

        Key Judgements     KJ-1. There is a realistic probability that the ADF maintains some sort of financial connection to ISCAP, although not enough to classify them as a sub-branch of the latter.     KJ-2. It is highly likely the ADF and ISCAP share similar doctrinal beliefs in accordance with the Salafist school of Islamic thought. Furthermore, there is a realistic probability that the ADF does not use Salafism as the primary motivation for their…

United States Citizen Spies
: Valuable Assets or a Modern Stasi Tactic?

February 12, 2021

Michael Ellmer

      “Snitches get Stiches”     In the United States, that phrase is scripture in the canon of the criminal world. In the psyche of the street-hardened, to be labeled a snitch is worse than being labeled a murderer. As counter-intuitive as it sounds, there is indeed a code of honor in the world of crime and turning on one’s peers is the unforgivable sin.     In a similar yet drastically less sinister degree, recent revelations have…

The Montoneros: Hybrid Political-Guerrilla Terrorist Organisation

February 4, 2021

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

The Montoneros was a hybrid political-terrorist organisation that operated in the 1970s and 1980s in Argentina. With ideology as a driver, hierarchical structure with overt and covert capabilities suffered from a logistical change to a clandestine nature.         Why does this matter?     With Juan Domingo Peron in exile in Madrid in 1970, the Montoneros were born as a terrorist-insurgent organisation lobbying for Peron’s return to Argentina. The Montoneros achieved significant attacking and networking capabilities in…

Russia’s ‘Non-State State Actor’ Part VI
: Russian Mercenaries in the CAR

February 1, 2021

Eren Ersozoglu

           “Plausible deniability.” An essential weapon in the hybrid warfare arsenal of the Kremlin. By utilizing private military companies (PMCs), the Russian state enforces its existing spheres of influence, focusing not only on existing spheres such as former Soviet states like Ukraine and Belarus but also on new opportunities further afield in Africa, like the Central African Republic (CAR).         Timeline of Russian influence in the Central African Republic     The CAR government…

The Cali KGB: Counterintelligence and the Cali Cartel

January 29, 2021

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

  The Cali Cartel: Netflix, Narcos and Context   Netflix and social media romanticised for years the reign of both the Medellin and Cali Cartel in Colombia. Cartel leaders like Pablo Escobar attract more attention than historical accounts. This adds to an already distorted history regarding drug-trafficking during the height of Colombian cartels. In particular, projecting the idea of ‘bribery’ or corruption as an almost sole-driver of a cartel’s growth while other factors like a cartel’s capability are almost certainly…

The Threat of Vegan Extremism

January 27, 2021

Michael Ellmer

      The threat of vegan extremism is real. No, that is not a joke. A bit comical perhaps, as it would be to say the threat of “ketogenic extremism”, “paleo extremism”, or even “whole-30 extremism”, but shades of truth remain. When “extremism” is used as a descriptor, it is commonly associated with ideologically driven groups like al-Qaeda, Antifa, and the myriad of white supremacist factions currently active in the Western world. Certainly not the vegan archetype that shares…