grey dynamics

The Ghost of SADAT in Nagorno-Karabakh

November 11, 2020

Michael Ellmer

  This article was written on the 20th of October 2020.    Key Judgements   KJ-1. It is likely that the Turkish SADAT group is supporting Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict using SADAT trained proxy forces recruited in Syria.   KJ-2. It is highly likely that Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan is making it nearly impossible to begin finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict and is reanimating historical tensions between Turkey and Armenia.   “There are only patterns, patterns on…

QAnon: And Then There Was Q

November 4, 2020

Michael Ellmer

  And Then There Was Q   Referring back to the first part of this series, a collection of posts on the 4chan message board are instrumental in the QAnon timeline. The earliest posts were each written with a similar language/syntax structure, and were notably communicated with a rather authoritative textual tone, a tone that could lead one to believe that whoever was behind the posts possessed some sort of secret knowledge about the inner workings of the so-called “deep…

QAnon & Its Origins

November 3, 2020

Michael Ellmer

  What do anonymous online imageboards, rogue high-ranking government officials, pseudo-cryptography, the deep state, satanic sacrifices, The Matrix, the President of the United States and Pixar movies have in common?   To the uninitiated, the abstract nature of those listed topics combined is likely hard to wrap one’s head around. However, the mysterious nature of the list reflects the thrilling puzzle of a conspiracy that connects its items together.   That conspiracy is QAnon.   QAnon is a complex behemoth…

“Jihadi Drug”: Captagon Proliferation

October 28, 2020

Jeremy Walker

  Key Judgements   KJ-1.  The Syrian Civil War has increased the prevalence of Captagon and has almost certainly led to the proliferation of production and Trafficking in neighbouring regions, including North and East Africa.   KJ-2. Historic tribal and family relations control the Trafficking of drugs in Libya. Without this blessing, it is highly unlikely that the Captagon routes would continue.   KJ-3. Given its proximity to Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Peninsula, it is almost certain that there is Captagon…

Grey Dynamics in Mogadishu and the Future of Asymmetric Conflict
: Crowded, Urban, Littoral and Connected

October 23, 2020

Ahmed Hassan

A man walks past the wreckage of a building at the site of a VBIED attack undertaken by the militant group al Shabaab in the Somali capital of Mogadishu on October 15, 2017. AMISOM Photo / Tobin Jones   On October 14, Mogadishu was rocked by twin explosions on the Zoobe junction in the Hodan district and one near Aden Adde International airport, caused by vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED). It was an attack which up until now has not…

The Patriot Movement

October 14, 2020

Michael Ellmer

American History   The concept of a militia is no stranger to the American canon. Traces of civilian-military forces go back as far as the 1600s during the Colonial Period, over a century before the 13 colonies declared independence from British rule on the 4th of July 1776. The United States (US) Declaration of Independence was a pivotal act in the historical drama known as the American Revolution, and with the infancy of a new nation came the drafting of a…