North Africa has recently been impacted by severe natural disasters. They have experienced earthquakes, severe flooding, and wildfires which have killed thousands, displaced thousands more, and amplified the security risks facing the region. The worsening weather events pose serious challenges for political, economic, and human security in the coming decade.

Key Judgment 1: It is likely that Morocco will struggle to fully recover from the recent earthquake and their national security will remain vulnerable in the next 24 months.

Key Judgment 2: It is highly likely that Libya will face a water crisis in the next 24 months due to the recent flooding and the contamination of clean drinking water.

Key Judgment 3: It is likely that, in the next 24 months, North African states feel the effects of worsening environmental disasters and a more vulnerable national security.