Norway’s arctic strategy has been routinely characterised by a great power rivalry and a bellicose approach informed by growing Russian assertiveness. It is less a product of events in the Arctic, and more those taking place in Ukraine and along NATO’s border with Russia.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that Russia’s military build-up in the Arctic will entrench the defensive posture of Norway’s Arctic strategy.

Key Judgement 2. Norway will likely choose a strategy of risk management to strike a balance between deterrence and reassurance.

Key Judgement 3. Norway will likely prioritise the defence of its energy assets over the next 12 months.