In December, Bancroft, a US security firm, claimed it was negotiating with the Central African Republic government for security services. C.A.R.’s security has been defined by its relationship with Russia for the past few years. On 20 February, the BBC reported that Russian government documents indicated Russia’s military intelligence is extending a “regime survival package” to African nations. This includes providing military and diplomatic support in exchange for access to crucial natural resources. This regime survival package also included the Central African Republic. The Russian government has transformed the Wagner Group into the Africa Corps, expanding its presence in Africa’s Sahel region amidst political instability. The move aims to bolster Moscow’s military, political, and economic influence on the continent.

Key Judgement 1. C.A.R. leadership will likely seek to diversify its security partners, particularly from the West, in the next 12 months. 

Key Judgement 2. The C.A.R. likely plans to maintain relations with Russia in the near term, despite negotiations with other actors. 

Key Judgement 3. The Africa Corps likely seeks to capitalize on political instability in Africa’s Sahel region to expand Russia’s military footprint within the next 12 months.