Riots in the DRC – 3 months outlook (SEP 2022)

Summary.

Violent riots against the United Nations (UN) mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been raging since the 25^th of July 2022. Although protests against the UN’s DRC mission are nothing new this July, they have become more violent and extreme. This is because the people of the DRC have become disenchanted by the UN. And failure to quell the activities of violent groups such as ISCAP and M23  Its people do not feel safe.

Key Judgement 1: It is highly likely the riots over the UN’s role in the DRC will expedite its withdrawal from the country.

• On the 2^nd of August 2022, the government of the DRC announced it would reassess the planned withdrawal of the UN’s mission. With the hope of speeding up the process. (source)
• Following this announcement on the 18^th of August 2022, the UN withdrew its forces from the eastern city of Butembo. (source)
• Furthermore, on the 3^rd of August 2022, the DRC government asked a UN spokesman to leave the country. Accusing him of increasing tensions following the deadly riots in the country. (source)
• The riots in the DRC have consequently caused the deaths of 36 people, including 4 UN peacekeepers. And over 170 people were wounded in the chaos in the DRC. (source)

Key Judgement 2: It is highly likely the riots will continue following recent violent events in the DRC.

• Following the prison break in Butembo on the 9^th of August 2022, protests have again erupted in the city. In which protestors killed 5 police officers. (source)
• The continued violence from rebel groups against civilians has caused an unapparelled displacement of civilians. (source)
• The UN has admitted that its mission in the DRC is unable to cope with the continued development of rebel groups’ weaponry. In particular that of the M23 rebels. (source)

Key Judgement 3: It is likely that the UN mission in the DRC is a failure following its withdrawal on both a humanitarian and a security level.

• The UN’s use of live ammunition to try and quell the protests demonstrates just how far it has failed. In its mission keep the peace in the DRC. (source)
• UN peacekeepers have been accused of sexual assault by protestors. Resulting in the so-called peacekeepers fathering and abandoning thousands of children. (source)
• Ultimately, the UN mission has failed to protect civilians. Especially from rising insecurity both from rebel groups and extremist groups such as ISCAP.

Intelligence Cut-off 1 September 2022.