In the aftermath of the Wagner Group’s failed 2023 insurrection and the subsequent death of group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, the state of Russian private military contractors is in a period of reformation. By the direction of the Kremlin, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has assumed responsibility for all remaining groups. Responsibility includes the remnants of Wagner. As such, the once Wagner-dominated campaign to scramble across Africa faces uncertainty, as does Wagner’s future. While the Kremlin acts to restructure its paramilitary apparatus to avoid a future repeat, it must do so while maintaining a vested interest in African domination.
Key Judgment 1. The Wagner Group likely remains active in Africa yet in a fractured state and with decreased public exposure. Further, while the future of Wagner’s role in Africa remains undetermined, there is a realistic probability it will remain operational in a diminished capacity.
Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely Russia is restructuring the composition and operational direction of its African paramilitary forces underneath the “Expeditionary Corps”: a GRU-commanded unit directed to carry out Kremlin goals in Africa.
Key Judgment 3. Using current Russian paramilitary groups – specifically Wagner and Africa Corps – to provide security and operational command over African gold mining operations is likely one of the Kremlin’s current priorities.
