Boko Haram remains a potent force in Sahel-based Salafi-jihadist extremism. Despite many government claims of victory, the group still operates with relative freedom in the northern regions of Nigeria (source)(source). Because of this, as of 2021, the group has facilitated the deaths of 350,000 (source). Over the next 12 months, there is a realistic probability of Boko Haram launching a dramatic attack, a likely increase in inter-factional violence, and an unlikely chance the Nigerian government will defeat the group.
Key Judgement 1. There is a realistic probability that Boko Haram will attempt to conduct a consequential large-scale attack in the next 12 months. In this case, such an action would serve to increase the group’s notoriety at the expense of renewed international and government attempts to defeat the group.
Key Judgement 2. Factional violence within Boko Haram will likely increase in the next 12 months, increasing regional violence while decreasing operational efficiency against the government.
Key Judgement 3. Nigerian forces are unlikely to liberate the occupied areas of northern Nigeria in the next 12 months. Consequently, this will give the group time to consolidate its hold on the regions under its control.