Sahel Security 2023: Chad Forecast

Chad is currently experiencing a multidimensional crisis. Indeed, after the “institutional coup” organised by Mahamat Deby in April 2021, internal political unrest and opposition repression remained high. Additionally, the Tibesti region in the north, the bordering areas with Central African Republic (CAR) in the south, and especially Lake Chad surroundings, are an insecurity source for the country. Furthermore, Chad’s vulnerability to climate change is very high, risking undermining water security and food production. Despite this multidimensional crisis, Chad remains courted internationally for its fundamental role in regional security and underground resources.

Key Judgement 1: Political instability and internal insecurity will highly likely remain high over the next 12 months. In particular, the jihadist terrorist activity nearby Lake Chad still represents a serious threat to the country. 

Key Judgement 2: It is almost certain that Chad will remain deeply vulnerable to extreme climate events over the next 12 months. Amidst the multidimensional crisis, this weakness will increase water and food insecurity.  

Key Judgement 3: Chad will highly likely remain courted internationally over the next 12 months. Indeed, its regional military relevance and strategic position render the country particularly attractive to external partners.