Sahel Security 2023: Islamic State Sahel Forecast

The new developments within the Islamic State Sahel (IS Sahel) which includes the change in leadership and the increase of power over Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), will likely change the power dynamics of the Sahel region while furthering indescribable realities for the civilian populations.

Key Judgement 1. We can confidently say that it is very likely that IS Sahel will continue to increase their hold on the Sahel region in 2023, competing with JNIM and other militant, rebel, and state groups.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that civilians of the Sahel region will continue to suffer due to mass violence and be forced to negotiate with Islamic State Sahel in order to mitigate brutality.

Key Judgement 3. Algeria will likely contribute to the counterterrorism efforts for the Sahel region as Algeria shares borders with Mali, Niger, and Mauritania and has experience succeeding in fighting against militant salafi-jihadist groups.