Relations between Israel and countries in the Sahel region have been strained since the Arab-Israeli wars in the 1970s (source). However, after the Abraham Accords were signed in 2020, many African states were given the ‘go-ahead’ to normalise relations with Israel (source). Israel now has relations with countries in the Sahel like Chad. The Sahel region is a key strategic focus for Israel due to competition with Iran and a desire to gain supporters within the UN. Meanwhile, the Sahel region faces strong vulnerabilities in the area of security. Countries would therefore benefit from Israel’s extensive technological resources and expertise in security.

Key Judgement 1: Israel is likely to continue expanding their economic and security influence in the Sahel region in the next 12 months. This is partly an attempt to reduce the influence of Iran in the region.

Key Judgement 2: It is probable that the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad, will become a key security actor in the Sahel in the next 12 months,

Key Judgement 3: In the next 12 months, it is probable that some countries in the Sahel will continue to support Palestine within the UN. This may result in repercussions from Israel.