Sahel Security 2023: Mauritania Forecast


    A former French colony, Mauritania is a country which has faced a series of coup d├ętats in the past (source). The Presidential election in 2019 was the first time since independence that there has been a peaceful transition to a new president (source).

    Furthermore, the country has not faced a Salafi-jihadist attack since 2011 (source). Mauritania is a recipient of development aid from both Russia and the United States (US).

    Additionally, they are a member of the G5 Sahel Joint Force which encourages cooperation to counter-terrorism in the Sahel (source).

    Although experiencing a period of stability, Mauritania’s location makes it susceptible to security threats in the region.

    Key Judgement 1: After a peaceful transition to the current president, it is likely that Mauritania will continue to experience political stability in the next 12 months.

    Key Judgement 2: In the next 12 months, Mauritania will likely remain neutral on the Russia-Ukraine war in order to maintain economic and development support from both Russia and the US.

    Key Judgement 3: In an effort to escape violence, it is likely that displaced peoples from Mali will continue travelling to Mauritania in the next 12 months. This may put a strain on government resources supplying refugee camps.

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    Eimear Duggan
    Eimear Duggan
    Eimear is an intelligence analyst currently pursuing the International Masters programme in Security, Intelligence and Strategic Studies (IMSISS). Her main areas of interest are Balkan security, European affairs, and extremism.

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