A former French colony, Mauritania is a country which has faced a series of coup détats in the past (source). The Presidential election in 2019 was the first time since independence that there has been a peaceful transition to a new president (source).
Furthermore, the country has not faced a Salafi-jihadist attack since 2011 (source). Mauritania is a recipient of development aid from both Russia and the United States (US).
Additionally, they are a member of the G5 Sahel Joint Force which encourages cooperation to counter-terrorism in the Sahel (source).
Although experiencing a period of stability, Mauritania’s location makes it susceptible to security threats in the region.
Key Judgement 1: After a peaceful transition to the current president, it is likely that Mauritania will continue to experience political stability in the next 12 months.
Key Judgement 2: In the next 12 months, Mauritania will likely remain neutral on the Russia-Ukraine war in order to maintain economic and development support from both Russia and the US.
Key Judgement 3: In an effort to escape violence, it is likely that displaced peoples from Mali will continue travelling to Mauritania in the next 12 months. This may put a strain on government resources supplying refugee camps.