Turkey is expanding its footprint in the Sahel region. Ankara is efficiently navigating the geopolitical landscape, utilising the demise of the West as a security provider and circumventing established greater powers such as Russia and China. Furthermore, the ongoing domestic conflict serves Turkey as a storefront for its arms technology. The increasing Turkish influence may attract additional external actors and thus increase the prospects for proxy conflicts in 2023.

Key Judgement 1. Turkey will likely increase its influence in the Sahel region during 2023, utilising France’s withdrawal as a security provider and balancing between the United States, Russia, and China’s established presence.

Key Judgement 2. Turkey will likely utilise domestic conflict in the Sahel as a storefront to brand its weapons industry.

Key Judgement 3. Following Turkey’s increasing presence, other peripheral actors will likely follow and thus enhance prospects for coup d’états and proxy conflicts in the Sahel in 2023.