The strategic relationship between the United States and Sahel nations is increasing in importance. As France withdraws and Russia seeks to project its influence, the already unstable region faces new challenges throughout the next year. As the US recalibrates its African strategy, it is worth assessing the potential future outcomes.

Key Judgement 1. We assess it is highly likely the US will pursue a diplomatic and humanitarian focused agenda in the Sahel over the next 12 months. This assessment is based on the 2022 US Africa policy. The policy replaces a counterterrorism focus with one on humanitarian initiatives.

Key Judgement 2. We assess it is unlikely the current US counterterrorism strategy in the Sahel will have a significant influence on regional security over the next twelve months. The US will likely focus on unconventional and special operations driven missions.

Key Judgement 3. The current surge in Russian interest in the Sahel will likely force the US to further reevaluate its regional strategy over the next 12 months. With the current US strategy, there is a minimal focus on contingency plans against regional intervention from non-Western nations.