Ecuador has faced security challenges including street crime, drug trafficking facilitating organized crime, periodic political protests, governance-related corruption, and occasional concerns about terrorism (source). The country’s strategic location has made it a transit point for drug trafficking, prompting law enforcement efforts. Addressing corruption and governance issues, as well as maintaining vigilance against potential terrorism, have been areas of concern. Although the administration is trying to bring the situation under control, it is not likely to improve in the short term.
Key judgement 1. It is likely that over the next 6 months, the security situation in Ecuador will continue to deteriorate, including sporadic terrorist attacks.
Key judgement 2. In the next 6 months, drug trafficking is likely to grow stronger, given the Ecuadorian government’s inability to control sea and air routes.
Key judgement 3. The political and social situation is likely to deteriorate further in the next 6 months, especially due to the recent assassinations of important political figures.
KJ-1. It is likely that over the next 6 months, the security situation in Ecuador will continue to deteriorate, including sporadic terrorist attacks.
a. In the first half of 2023, the Ecuadorian police recorded 3,500 murders. Besides violent deaths, the population faces extortion, kidnappings, and bombings such as car bombs (source).
b. Ecuador has registered at least 145 bombings between January and mid-August 2022. Half of them occurred in Guayaquil (source).
c. On 14 August 2022, the Ecuadorian authorities described an attack with firearms and explosives in Guayaquil as a “declaration of war against the state” by organised crime. It left five people dead and twenty more injured (source).
KJ-2. In the next 6 months, drug trafficking is likely to grow stronger, given the Ecuadorian government’s inability to control sea and air routes.
a. The police reported that criminal group clashes caused 80% of the murders in Ecuador in March 2022 (source). These groups seek to gain control of the distribution and export of drugs, mainly cocaine (source).
b. Transnational criminal networks mainly carry out the violence caused by drug trafficking in Ecuador. Some of the main drug gangs are Los Choneros, Los Lobos, and Tiguerones (source).
c. Los Choneros work for the Sinaloa Cartel. They threatened Fernando Villavicencio and operated mainly in Manta, the city where Agustín Intriago was mayor. Other groups do so for the Jalisco Cartel – New Generation (JCNG) (source).
d. Los Choneros also issued a threat of ‘thousands of deaths’ if the authorities harmed their leader, Fito. He is currently in a maximum-security prison (source).
KJ-3. The political and social situation is likely to deteriorate further in the next 6 months, especially due to the recent assassinations of important political figures.
a. Ecuador held early general elections on 20 August 2023. However, during the last few months, three important political figures have been assassinated (source).
b. On 23 July, Agustín Intriago, mayor of Manta, was assassinated (source). On 15 August, Pedro Briones, leader of Revolución Ciudadana (RC), the party of former president Rafael Correa, was also assassinated (source).
c. On 9 August, Ecuador’s presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, was assassinated in Quito (source).
d. Many consider that political conflicts are being resolved through violence. This also makes visible the influence of different criminal groups in the state (source).
Analytical Summary
We have high confidence in our assessment that the security situation in Ecuador will continue to deteriorate progressively. This includes sporadic terrorist attacks, as well as greater criminal activity. It is likely that drug trafficking will strengthen, and we expect the socio-political situation to worsen. Our analysis is primarily based on Spanish-language press. It is also supported by a Latin American consultant. We assume that the current and the next government will continue to take measures similar to those already taken. In addition, criminal groups and Narcos will continue to benefit from the situation. Should this assumption prove incorrect we would either see tougher measures against criminality or the beginning of an era of even greater instability in the country. Further insight into the plans of Ecuador’s next government, as well as those of criminal groups and narco-traffickers, would reduce uncertainty.
