Serb Municipalities in Kosovo Unrest: A 12-month Forecast

The Serb-majority regions in Kosovo do not recognise Pristina as the rightful government. Areas, such as North Mitrovica, have jurisdiction over public services including education and health care but demand greater autonomy. This matter is a key obstacle in the normalisation dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo. Kosovo continues to declare that the formation of the Association of Serb Municipalities (ASM) cannot happen until after Serbia recognises Kosovo as an independent state. Serbia, on the other hand, refuses to come to a political agreement until Kosovo form an ASM. Furthermore, the United States (U.S.) and the European Union (E.U.) are pushing for an agreement to be made amidst rising tensions in the northern regions of Kosovo.

Key Judgement 1: It is unlikely that Kosovo will grant autonomous power to the Serb municipality regions in the North of Kosovo within the next 12 months, further impeding relations.

Key Judgement 2: In the next 12 months, it is likely that Serbia and Kosovo will continue to cooperate in EU-facilitated peace talks due to contineued pressure from the EU and the U.S.

Key Judgement 2: The security situation in the Serb-majority municipalities is likely to worsen over the next 12 months. While, strikes within law enforcement will reduce the capability of the government to handle protests.

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