Background
Somalia is being devastated by widespread floods following the Deyr Rainy Season. From October to December, the seasonal Deyr brings rain and flash floods to several parts of the country. According to UN data, nearly 100 people have died and around 2 million affected. The most affected people are in the Bay region, Gedo, and Mudug. The floods have damaged several structures, including shelters for the displaced people who remain vulnerable to flooding in low-lying zones. Limited access to the areas due to impassable roads is delaying timely deliveries of critical supplies.These floods come at a critical moment in Somalia’s fight against al-Shabaab militants in the south and central regions of the East African nation.
Key Judgement 1. It is likely that the al Shabaab offensive in the Galguduud and Mudug regions will slow due to flooding in the near term.
Key Judgement 2. It is likely that al Shabaab attacks in the capital city of Mogadishu will be limited to coordinated, small-level strikes and remote warfare tactics.
Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely that food insecurity and famine in Somalia will worsen due to combined droughts and floods.
KJ-1.It is likely that the al Shabaab offensive in the Galguduud and Mudug regions will slow due to flooding in the near term.
a. On 12 November, the Shabelle river broke its banks and flooded the lowlands in the region. In early September, some 120 al Shabaab fighters had crossed the Shebelle and established dug-in defence posts. [source] [source]
b. Transportation to areas affected by the floods is high-risk. Residents in al-Shabaab territories cannot receive help from officials as they are unwilling to risk travelling to these areas. However, al-Shabaab is equally as limited under flood conditions. [source]
c. On 6 August the Somali government launched Operation Black Lion to the Hirshabelle and Galmudug states. The floods make the conditions for this operation impossible in the near term. [source]
KJ-2. It is likely that al Shabaab attacks in the capital city of Mogadishu will be limited to coordinated, small-level strikes and remote warfare tactics.
a. On 13 November, the Somali army thwarted an al-Shabaab suicide bomb attempt on an army base in Mogadishu. [source]
b. From 14 October – 10 November, Somalia saw a 77% decrease in reported fatalities and 33% decrease in political violence across the country. [source]
c. PM Hamza Abdi Barre acknowledged that Mogadishu is witnessing “relative calm and security” in a speech at the Hiil-Weyne base. However, the Somali army faces al-Shabaab on many fronts, even in Mogadishu. [source]
KJ-3. It is highly likely that food insecurity and famine in Somalia will worsen due to combined droughts and floods.
a. According to the WFP, 4.3 million people could face “crisis level hunger or worse” by the end of the year. The WFP is dealing with significant funding shortfalls, hinderings its ability to provide food assistance. [source][source]
b. Until the Deyr passes, up to 1.5 million hectares of farmland are at risk of being destroyed, [source]
c. The Horn of Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change as extreme weather events. Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya are facing the worst drought in 40 years. [source]
d. The Ukraine war has worsened Somalian food insecurity as over 90% of the country’s grains were imported from Ukraine and Russia. [source]
Analytical Summary
We have high confidence in our assessment that the floods in Somalia will lead to a stalemate in the Al-Shabaab offensive in Galguduud and Mudug regions, limit fighting in Mogadishu to coordinated attacks, and significantly worsen food insecurity and famine due to combined droughts and floods. Our assessment is based on think tank reporting, international press reporting, and official government statements.
We considered the alternative that the al-Shabaab offensive would not be hindered by the floods, but judged it unlikely due to the unreliable condition of strategic posts and roads. We assume that the conflict remains in a stalemate until conditions improve. Should this assumption be wrong, we would expect to see some success from the al Shabaab offensive in the Galguduud and Mudug regions.
Intelligence Cut-off Date: 27 November 2023
