The recent Presidential and Legislative elections in Taiwan (officially the Republic of China or ROC) have stoked tensions with China. The victory of pro-sovereignty candidate Lai Ching-te clashes with the traditional “one China” policy. Chinese policymakers are also upset about recent US military assistance packages to the island. The new status quo prompts questions about the future of the island and its relations with the PRC.  

Key judgement 1. The recent presidential victory of Taiwan’s pro-sovereignty candidate and increased US military aid to the country will certainly increase tensions with China over the next six months.

Key judgement 2. China is very likely to continue to interfere in various ways in Taiwan to advance its one-China policy over the next six months.

Key judgement 3. Despite tensions between the two countries, it is unlikely that China will attack Taiwan in the next six months.