The upsurge in violence has been attributed to an allegedly highly organized, foreign-trained, and well-financed group of radicalized Muslim youth. The group is known as Al-Sunnah (“followers of the prophetic tradition). They are locally referred to as al-Shabab (“the youth”). The birth date of al-Sunnah dates back to 2013 or early 2014. The group has no known connection to the Somali group of the same name. But what is happening in Cabo Delgado when Mozambique has had no history of an Islamist insurgency?
Since October 2017, in Cabo Delgado, more than 100 people have been killed in over 40 separate attacks. Cabo Delgado borders Tanzania and is rich in gas and minerals. These are vital for the future of the country’s economy. Attention was first drawn to the province after the Oct 5, 2017, attack on local police units by 40 gunmen. Many of the attacks have followed a similar pattern. Hit-and-run raids during which attackers torch houses, steal supplies, and behead victims, including women and children. Thousands have been displaced since the violence began.
Who is al-Sunnah? The new Boko Haram or Disgruntled Youth?
It is estimated that al-Sunnah has a membership of between 350 and 1,500. These are organised in tens of small cells along the coast of Cabo Delgado. The predominant narrative is that the group initially aimed to enforce sharia law in the province. Nonetheless, they became armed when they encountered resistance in local religious structures and escalated the confrontation. However, with very little supporting evidence, it is widely proclaimed a violent extremist Islamist phenomenon. They allegedly have some links to foreign jihadists. Nonetheless, these are not necessarily directed by them; groups in Congo, Kenya, and Somalia provide training. Also, it is claimed that the group finances its activities through illegal mining and contraband.
The Mozambican authorities also prescribe to this theory. In December, prosecutors named a South African and two Tanzanians among the leaders of a jihadist group. Authorities claim the group intends to form an independent state. In court documents, the prosecution said the group faces charges of murder, crimes against the state and inciting civil disobedience, among other offences. In October, legal proceedings began against some 200 suspected jihadists, claiming all “confessed that the group intends with their armed actions to create instability and prevent the exploitation of natural gas in Palma, and later make an independent state.
The Socio-Economic Perspective
However, other observers see the group’s political agenda as having roots in the socio-economic plights of the province. According to Joseph Hanlon of the London School of Economics, al-Sunnah was formed in 2015 when groups of street traders, joined by economic frustration and radical Islam, urged people not to pay taxes or send their children to state schools and attacked mosques to shake up the local Muslim community. This group is described as marginalized; many originally migrated to the area and had few economic opportunities. The new mineral and gas boom could be igniting local discontent. This, coupled with smuggling and religious networks, has provided these poorly educated and marginalized youths with the fuel to oppose what they see as a corrupt state.
What’s at stake?
The province is near to one of the world’s most extensive untapped offshore gas fields, and the rise in violence is threatening this booming opportunity. Companies such as Anadarko and Eni are investing some $50bn (around four times Mozambique’s annual GDP) in the region to exploit gas reserves found in 2010. Also, the British firm Gemfields will mine what is said to be the world’s most significant ruby deposit. Last year, it was reported that London-listed explorer Wentworth Resources had not been able to gain access to its onshore licences due to safety concerns caused by the attacks. Also, last year, Anadarko suspended work on its natural gas project due to insecurity.
Mupato’s Crackdown
The government has responded with a heavy hand. On June 2, 2018, police forces killed nine members of al-Sunnah, and on Aug 16, security forces killed at least four more. This is after President Filipe Nyusi vowed to be “relentless and firm in neutralizing those responsible” for the attacks but said he had instructed his security force in Cabo Delgado not to kill anyone – “If you catch these youths, don’t kill them. They are Mozambicans and have been turned into instruments. They’ve been given orders by people who don’t want the development of this country and this province.”
The authorities have also closed and even destroyed mosques believed to be owned by fundamentalist groups. Mozambique’s parliament even approved a bill that would punish acts of terrorism with jail terms of up to 24 years. Human Rights Watch has accused the government of abuses due to the crackdown. In December, Justice Minister Joaquim Verissimo claimed the security situation is now “under control” and did not describe the group as insurgents, merely calling them criminals.
Creating the Next Boko Haram?
So far, the government’s response can only be considered a shortsighted response to a much more complex issue. Without fully understanding who these youth are and their plights, they risk further marginalizing them and the broader communities in Cabo Delgado. If the country wants to benefit from the economic growth in the region, it must ensure inclusiveness in its development and benefits. Reports of exclusion in the gas job market and ruby-related land grabs have already emerged. A harsh security crackdown does not address the deeper roots driving the problem. As Eric Morier-Genoud of Queens University Belfast compares Cabo Delgado to north-east Nigeria during the early days of Boko Haram, heavy-handed tactics will only help transform al-Sunnah into a much deadlier terror group.
