Following a growing terrorist expansion in West Africa stemming from the Sahel region, an increasing terror threat in Guinea is becoming apparent. Moreover, since the coup d’état in 2021, the Guinean leadership has been taking measures accompanied by a growing risk of harming bilateral relations. Furthermore, a window of opportunity for recruitment to the ranks of Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), as well as the chance to demonstrate force in the country, are evolving. Finally, external interests beyond the Chinese and United States (US) presence are evident in the region, not least by the Russian Wagner Group. Hence, there are prospects for future instability and potentially an increasing terrorist presence in the country.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that the Guinean government, facing regional tensions, will increasingly take measures of national interest at the expense of international support in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. JNIM will likely continue to expand its operational area, resulting in an increasing threat to Guinea from the Malian border in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3 Increasing tensions along the Malian border will likely enhance the prospects for Russian military presence in Guinea in the next 12 months.