Senegal is facing an increasing terrorist threat on its border and is vulnerable towards external influence. Recent external interest in West Africa, mainly from Russia and China, accompanied by regional instability with terrorist expansion stemming from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, poses a considerable threat to West African states. Although Senegal is enjoying a fair amount of stability and the country is spared from expanding regional insurgency, there are prospects for hostile developments as regional and global interests clash. Drawing from trends in the Sahel the correlation between external presence and terrorist activity highlights an increasing terrorist threat in Senegal.
Key Judgement 1. The inability to convert resource wealth into public welfare will likely increase prospects for external influence from state actors and regional terrorist groups in the next 12 months.
Key Judgement 2. Based on regional trends, influence from state actors will likely challenge Western roles as regional security providers and create prospects for terrorist expansion from bordering states in the next 12 months.
Key Judgement 3. Terrorist provocations will likely induce governmental measures affecting local populations and spur public discontent in the next 12 months.