The African Union’s Failure in Somalia: The Final Year?

Background

Founded in 2007, the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), formerly recognized as the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), assembled approximately 22,000 troops from Uganda, Burundi, and the nearby nations of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti. The primary objective of the AU peacekeeping forces was to support the federal government of Somalia in its conflict against al-Shabab. However, the mission has faced numerous challenges, including the complex political landscape, insurgency by extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab, and resource constraints. Despite years of service, ATMIS has struggled to fully eliminate the threat posed by Al-Shabaab and establish a stable security environment in Somalia.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that in the next 12 months ATMIS will cease operations. 

Key Judgement 2. In the next 12 months, the exit of AU forces will contribute to the overall insecurity of the Somali government and its regions.

Key Judgement 3.  It is likely that the US military will continue its operations in Somalia as the AU withdraws from Somalia in the next 12 months.

Rest of this post is for paying members only

Already have an account?  Log in

Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Table of Contents

Related Content

Chinese Cyber Espionage and the Dutch Political Scene

Location:_ Europe, Far East

North Korea: Trash Balloons and the Return of Cold War Tactics

Location:_ Far East

Taiwan and Legislative Contempt: A Situational Assessment

Location:_ Far East

A New North Korea-Russia Alliance

Location:_ Eurasia, Far East

Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP): 12 Month Counter-Terrorism Forecast

Indo-Qatari Relations: A Spy Scandal in Qatar

Location:_ MENA

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading intel articles and reports actually enjoyable.

Log in

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading Intelligence Reports and Articles actually enjoyable.

Table of Contents

Contact

Contact

"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.