On 22 March, armed assailants launched a deadly assault on Crocus City Hall. The attack resulted in the tragic loss of 144 lives, marking the deadliest attack in Russia in two decades. The Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS- K, ISKP) claimed responsibility for the atrocity. Russian authorities have arrested four individuals from Tajikistan, believed to be connected to the attack. Additionally, Russian officials have suggested the involvement of Ukraine, a claim dismissed by US officials as unfounded. Notably, US authorities had previously alerted Russia to the potential threat against the Hall. Furthermore, Moscow declared the detention of 11 individuals in connection with the attack. Charges were brought against four of them for carrying out the assault.

Key Judgement 1. The Russian government is likely to exploit the attack as justification for increased surveillance and crackdowns on minority communities in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 2. The Russian Government likely overlooked warnings about the attack, potentially intending to utilize the aftermath to divert attention from the conflict in Ukraine.

Key Judgement 3. The Russian Government may exploit the attack to implicate Ukraine and initiate a retaliatory campaign in the next 6 months.