Entering its sixth year in 2023, the Cabo Delgado insurgency in Mozambique remains a dire humanitarian crisis. Despite government efforts to neutralise key insurgent leaders in early 2023,  sporadic rebel attacks persist. Armed violence is causing significant losses to Cabo Delgado’s economic sector and dire humanitarian consequences. Over 600,000 people are still living in precarious conditions and over half a million children face vulnerability. Returning them to their homes is challenging.

Key Judgement-1: Insurgents will likely retain control in key parts of Cabo Delgado like Mocímboa and Mucojo.

Key Judgement-2: It is likely that Total Energies will resume operations in Cabo Delgado in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement-3: Ongoing conflict will likely worsen the humanitarian situation in the next 12 months.