On 3 January 2024, Estonia’s internal security service, Kaitsepolitseiamet (KAPO) detained Russian professor Viacheslav Morzov on espionage charges. Tensions between the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and Russia are high, largely due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Moscow’s subsequent rhetoric about incorporating the Baltic states into Russia. Morzov’s detainment is the latest in a wave of arrests by Baltic intelligence services of suspected Russian spies since 2022. The spy hunt has led the Baltics to increase their activity in isolating Russian citizens residing in the region and shoring up their joint defences.
Key Judgement 1: It is likely that Baltic governments will curtail Russia’s official and unofficial presence to counter spying in the next 12 months.
Key Judgement 2: It is highly likely that the Baltic states will cooperate to secure the Russian border over the next 12 months.
Key Judgement 3: It is likely Russia will use hybrid methods to destabilise the Baltic states’ security over the next 12 months.