The escalation of PKK attacks in Turkey has triggered a heightened military response. Since 17 April 2022, when Ankara initiated the Operation “Lock Claw” against PKK strongholds in northern Iraq, there has been a surge in PKK attacks. These include targeted attacks on Turkish military bases that killed  soldiers and civilians. Furthermore, the PKK’s recruitment tactics, including the abduction of youths, especially girls, in Syria and Iraq, indicate a troubling trend. As Turkish operations push PKK militants to retreat from certain areas, there is a possibility of their expansion into other villages in northern Iraq, most notably Soran, Sidkan, Qandil, Zakho, Al-Zab, Amadiyah, Haftanin, and Kani Massi, in addition to Makhmour and Sinjar.

Key Judgement 1. Turkey will likely escalate military efforts against the PKK in the next 12 months to combat rising attacks.

Key Judgement 2. It’s likely that PKK will abduct more youths to bolster recruitment in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that Kurdistan Workers’ Party militants will expand into northern Iraq to avoid the Turkish army’s operations in the next 12 months.