On 21 April, Ecuador will hold a referendum on a series of questions from constitutional reform to fighting organised crime. Ecuador has been in a delicate situation for several years due to the growing activity of criminal groups. This situation reached its peak on 9 January, when several organised crime groups carried out dramatic attacks throughout the country as a response to the escape of the leader of Los Choneros, Fito. They took over prisons and television stations, kidnapping and killing dozens, including policemen. The violence led President Daniel Noboa to declare a state of emergency and later the “state of internal war”. This event has repercussions on the internal security of the country, as well as on its functioning.

Key Judgement 1. Given the recent attacks, the Ecuadorian government will likely take tougher measures against crime in the next six months.

Key Judgement 2. Given the lucrative nature of the drug business, it is unlikely that criminal organisations in Ecuador will lose significant strength in the next six months.

Key Judgement 3. The United States is likely to increase its support for the Ecuadorian government in the next six months.