The Terrorism Situation in Iran: A 6-month Forecast

In early January, ISIS’s Khorasan branch (ISKP) orchestrated the deadliest terrorist attack against Iran since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The bombing comes amid escalating attacks by the Baluchi Jaish-ul-Adl separatist group against Iranian security forces. For years, the Iranian government has justified its military presence in Iraq and Syria by framing it as a strategy to degrade terrorist groups. They argued that by combating terrorists through militias in the region, they could avoid facing such threats on their home turf. The attack shattered the regime’s sense of security. As ISIS escalates its campaign against the Iranian regime, the country will face significant challenges in restoring its internal security.

Key judgement 1. ISKP and Jaish-ul-Adl are likely to intensify their attacks in Iran over the next six months.

Key judgement 2. The Kurdish rebels are unlikely to escalate their armed struggle against the Iranian regime in the next six months.

Key judgement 3. The Iranian regime is likely to intensify its persecution of all those who oppose the regime in the next 6 months.

Rest of this post is for paying members only

Already have an account?  Log in

Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
$14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
$39.99
/ month
Table of Contents

Related Content

Domestic Terrorism in the USA: An Escalated Threat

Location:_ North America

Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP): 12 Month Counter-Terrorism Forecast

Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS): Dead But Not Buried?

Location:_ MENA

Nigerian Defence: Balancing Human Rights and Security

Location:_ West Africa

Islamic State Somalia Province (ISS): An Assessment

Location:_ Horn of Africa

JNIM: The Quest for a West African Caliphate

Location:_ West Africa

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading intel articles and reports actually enjoyable.

Log in

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading Intelligence Reports and Articles actually enjoyable.

Table of Contents

Contact

Contact

"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.