In early January, ISIS’s Khorasan branch (ISKP) orchestrated the deadliest terrorist attack against Iran since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The bombing comes amid escalating attacks by the Baluchi Jaish-ul-Adl separatist group against Iranian security forces. For years, the Iranian government has justified its military presence in Iraq and Syria by framing it as a strategy to degrade terrorist groups. They argued that by combating terrorists through militias in the region, they could avoid facing such threats on their home turf. The attack shattered the regime’s sense of security. As ISIS escalates its campaign against the Iranian regime, the country will face significant challenges in restoring its internal security.

Key judgement 1. ISKP and Jaish-ul-Adl are likely to intensify their attacks in Iran over the next six months.

Key judgement 2. The Kurdish rebels are unlikely to escalate their armed struggle against the Iranian regime in the next six months.

Key judgement 3. The Iranian regime is likely to intensify its persecution of all those who oppose the regime in the next 6 months.