On 11 February, US presidential candidate Donald Trump stated he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO members not meeting defence spending guidelines [source]. As of April, Trump currently leads polling and is favourite to be re-elected as President of the United States. [source] Back in 2014, all NATO members agreed to spend two per cent of GDP on defence within the next decade.

However, by 2024, only 11 out of the 32 NATO members have reached this target. Trump’s comments have called into question the U.S. commitment to NATO’s collective defence, as well as future military aid to Ukraine. The next 12 months will be crucial for Europe as they attempt to keep the US invested in European security whilst also preparing for an American NATO exit.  

Key Judgement 1. Bringing the US-led Ukraine Defence Contract Group under broader NATO control would highly likely safeguard the flow of military aid to Ukraine over the next four years.

Key Judgement 2. EU members are unlikely to accept NATO’s five-year plan for Ukraine unless they absorb prior bilateral agreements into the financial pledge. 

Key Judgement 3. It is unlikely more NATO members meeting the “2% target” will influence US policy towards NATO collective defence.