Tuareg vs Mali Government: A 6-Month Forecast

The relationship between the Tuareg groups and Bamako central government has always been problematic. Indeed, Since Mali’s formal independence from France in 1960, the Tuareg groups have risen up four times, claiming the independence of Tombouctu, Gao, Méneka, Kidal and Taoudénit regions, also known as Azawad.

During the last rebellion in 2012, the independentist Tuareg militias temporarily aligned with jihadist groups, starting a joint offensive in Mali’s north. Due to the rising issues with the terrorist Katibas, most Tuareg groups switched sides by signing a peace agreement with Bamako: The 2015 Algeri accord. However, relations remained peaceful only for a few years.

Indeed, the Algeri accords’ implementation lack, the Malian aggressive counterinsurgency approach and the Tuareg’s links with Transnational Organised Crime (TOC) and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) are leading to a progressive relations deterioration. 

Key Judgement 1: The security situation will highly likely continue to worsen over the next 6 months. In particular, Bamako’s more aggressive standpoint challenges the informal Tuareg rule in Azawad.

Key Judgement 2: The rising tensions between the Tuareg militias and Bamako will highly likely shelve the 2015 Algeri accords over the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 3: Some elements of the Tuareg militias will likely continue the economically advantageous cooperation with JNIM and TOC in the next 6 months.

https://greydynamics.com/episode-24-sahel-security-week-french-exodus-wagner-coin-efforts-with-menastream/

Read the rest of the report below…

Rest of this post is for paying members only

Already have an account?  Log in

Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
£14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
£39.99
/ month
Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
£14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
£39.99
/ month
Already a member? Log in here

Table of Contents

Related Content

Secret

Bioweapons Targeting Crops: Assessing the Threat

Secret

Wagner Out, Africa Corps In: Russia’s Card Shuffle in Mali

Location:_ West Africa, Europe

Sudan Conflict 2025 Forecast: Drones, Contractors, Covert Activity  

Location:_ East Africa
Secret

Antiquities Trafficking: Organised Crime’s Forgotten Front  

Secret

Radicalisation and Recruitment in the US Military Community

Location:_ North America
Secret

Bioterrorism: AI and Gene Editing as New Enablers?

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading intel articles and reports actually enjoyable.

Log in

Stay in the loop

Join thousands of people receiving monthly reports on history alternating events that affect their business, investments and personal life.

Table of Contents

Contact

Contact

"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.