In July 2021, President Kais Saied seized power in Tunisia through a coup. He then introduced a state of emergency, suspended the parliament, and dismissed the Prime Minister. The Tunisian leader then pushed forward a constitutional reform that granted him far-reaching powers.

Since then, Saied has ruled the country by unilateral presidential decree amid an increasingly worrying economic crisis. The executive set elections for a new parliament in December 2022, which resulted in record low electoral turnout.

While the 2024 presidential election approaches, economic issues and divided political power will likely lead to decreasing domestic political stability in Tunisia. (source)

Key Judgement 1. Political stability throughout Tunisia will likely decrease over the next 12 months, likely triggering social unrest as the 2024 presidential election approaches.

Key Judgement 2. President Kais Saied will highly likely take an increasingly authoritarian approach to decision-making over the next 12 months, deepening political divisions and endangering democracy in the country.

Key Judgement 3. The Tunisian economy will likely continue to deteriorate over the next 12 months. Poor living conditions will likely aggravate popular discontent and mobilisation.