Recent turbulence in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) indicates a growing instability in the multilateral organisation. Long-standing conflicts, between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, escalated in the past 2 years. The developments highlight vulnerabilities and a potentially growing mistrust towards Russia, the organisation’s security provider.

The recent development follows a pattern of internal disputes among member states, likely raising distrust in its function as a balancing power to NATO. Further on, Russia’s inability to support Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh wars and the following conflicts highlights the organisation’s shortcomings and its members’ dependency towards a potentially weakened and highly occupied Russia.

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there are incentives for NATO members ‌and Azerbaijan ally Turkey, to utilise evolving splits as a means of weakening Russia’s influence and military capability in the region. In summary, turbulence in the CSTO offers interesting prospects for future regional stability in the East.