On 31 March 2024, Turkey will hold contentious municipal elections. These elections remain critical for President Erdogan’s pursuit of a new constitution to side-step presidential term limits and decimate the remaining elements of judicial independence [source]. Recently, Erdogan reiterated that he does not intend to seek re-election as President in 2028. Yet Turkey’s last constitutional referendum demonstrated that the incumbent president could manipulate an electoral victory to solidify his own political expediency by winning back cities lost in 2019. Unsurprisingly, the ongoing conflict in Gaza bears considerable influence over voter comportment inasmuch as Erdogan is focused on regional diplomacy and eager to internationalise the conflict.

The analysis proffered here is that these elections will have implications for civil unrest. Not to mention terrorism in the major cities, with the potential for boycotts motivated by economic nationalism.

Key Judgement 1. Parties in Istanbul and Kurdish-populated areas in the southeast will likely dispute and protest Turkey’s election results.

Key Judgement 2. Extremist groups, namely the Islamic State (IS), are likely to mount attacks against Western interests in the country during and after Turkey’s elections.

Key Judgement 3. Due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, anti-Western boycotts will likely continue to rise prior to the onset of Turkey’s elections.