Turkish Intelligence Operations: A 6-Month Forecast

Turkish intelligence operations have increased in the last year. This has included expanded counter-intelligence operations as well as expanded intelligence-gathering operations abroad. Furthermore, this has resulted in NATO ally Germany accusing Turkey of running espionage operations in an allied nation. The Turkish Intelligence Agency, known as the National Intelligence Organization (MIT), has simultaneously demonstrated increasing activity in Northern Syria, primarily aimed at supporting military operations in the country. Turkey has also been active in eliminating Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and People’s Defense Units (YPG) targets in Northern Syria.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that Turkey will expand counter-intelligence operations aimed at disrupting foreign intelligence operations in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that Turkey will expand covert intelligence operations abroad in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely that Turkish intelligence will expand operations in Syria in the next 6 months.