U.S. Critical Minerals Economic Security Probe: Tariffs First, Fallout Later?

The United States is highly likely to impose new tariffs on critical mineral imports following the launch of a Section 232 investigation on 15 April, 2025. As a result, this marks a renewed escalation in its economic security strategy. The probe responds to growing concerns over U.S. reliance on foreign suppliers—especially China, which dominates global processing of rare earths, graphite, and other critical minerals.

Consequently, the investigation reflects not only trade protectionism but also a broader shift toward self-sufficiency and industrial resilience. Meanwhile, the U.S. has recently signed critical minerals bilateral agreements with Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, showing openness to collaborate with specific countries on the matter. Altogether, these developments suggest a likely return to broad-based tariffs, followed by targeted exemptions, with significant implications for global trade dynamics, allied cooperation, and deepening U.S.–China economic decoupling.

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