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    Unrest in Chad: A 6-month outlook

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    Recent pro-democracy protests in the capital of Chad, N’Djamena, were violently shut down by government forces on the 20th of October 2022 after the president delayed the democratic transition for another 2 years. This, combined with severe flooding and a severe lack of food, will likely exacerbate the civil unrest in the nation. Furthermore, the brutal crackdown has upset the international community and will likely attract more criticism.

    KJ-1: It is likely that pro-democracy protests will continue against the government in the next 6 months.

    • On the 20th of October 2022, security forces killed 50 protestors in N’Djamena. (Source)
    • Chad imposed a curfew in response to the increase in civil unrest. (Source)
    • The country is still on edge from the death of the last president, Idriss Deby in 2021, whose son (Mahamat Deby) then launched a coup to take over. (Source)
    • Although the coup was supposed to only be for 18 months, Mahamat Deby delayed elections a further 2 years on the 13th of October 2022. (Source)
    • Protests against the Junta have been going on for over a year with no success. (Source)
    • Moreover, protestors are calling for a faster transition to democracy. (Source)

    KJ-2: It is likely that humanitarian crises will exacerbate civil unrest in Chad in the next 6 months.

    • Severe flooding is affecting over 1 million people in Chad. (Source)
    • On the 20th of October 2022, the President of Chad declared a national emergency due to flooding. (Source)
    • Flooding is affecting food security as pastures are underwater, thereby leaving no land for livestock to graze on. (Source)
    • Parts of the capital are only navigable by boat. (Source)
    • Chad declared a food emergency in June 2022. (Source)
    • The people blame their hunger on the government. (Source)
    • The UN estimates 2.1 million people are acutely hungry in Chad. (Source)
    • Inflation rises are causing high levels of food insecurity across Africa, but the situation in Chad is particularly badly affected. (Source)

    KJ-3: It is likely that condemnation of the Government of Chad will increase in the next 6 months.

    • The UN has criticized Chad for the violent crackdown of protestors and called for an investigation. (Source
    • The US on the 20th of October 2022 condemned the use of force against protestors in Chad and the delay of the democratic process. (Source)
    • The African Union has also condemned the crackdown of protestors. (Source)
    • Although not outright condemnation, Nigeria, Chad’s neighbour, expressed concern over the treatment of protestors. (Source)
    • The National Bishops’ Conference of Chad has condemned the government of Chad. (Source)
    • Amnesty International has also outright condemned the brutal crackdown of protestors calling for a return of freedom of expression. (Source)
    • Even France, historically a protector of the Chad regime, condemned the violent crackdown. (Source)

    Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 23nd of November 2022

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