The United States (US) has attempted and will continue to do so, to normalise its relations with Venezuela – mainly in response to the global energy crisis. However, Venezuela’s partnerships with Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey pose a strategic and geopolitical challenge to the US. It could thus prevent the implementation of a sustainable, long-lasting agreement. Moreover, the rise of leftist governments in Latin America is likely to transform power dynamics in the region.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that, in the next 24 months, the US and its allies’ need for oil and gas resulting from the global energy crisis will push towards the normalisation of US-Venezuela relations.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that, in the next 24 months, Venezuela’s partnerships with Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey will hinder the recent easing of tensions with the US.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that the current national political situations of Latin American countries will reshuffle power dynamics in the next 24 months.