In January, Vietnamese officials met with Indonesian leaders to discuss establishing a code of conduct for the South China Sea and signed a naval cooperation deal with the Philippines. Vietnamese diplomatic conflicts with China over actions in the South China Sea have raised tensions between the two nations. Moreover, Vietnam has politically manoeuvred itself to secure deals from the US and China amid rising tensions. Vietnam, key in China’s BRI, has hesitated due to concerns over Chinese economic involvement, refraining from full commitment.

Additionally, Vietnamese politicians seek to address disputed islands in the South China Sea which China had captured in 1974. However, tensions arise over China’s growing economic involvement in Vietnam. Despite these tensions, China has surpassed the USA and has become Vietnam’s major export partner, indicating political shifts.

Key Judgement 1. China will likely seek to increase its influence over Vietnamese foreign policy in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. Vietnam will highly likely seek to increase cooperation with the USA and ASEAN nations in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. Vietnamese claims over the SCS are highly likely to raise tensions with China in the next 12 months.